Briefing: Analysis Of Evidence On Potential Migration From Bulgaria And Romania

There have been a range of predictions on the potential migration from Bulgaria and Romania when transitional controls are ended at the start of 2014. The attached briefing sets out a review of the claims, an analysis of the evidence and a projection of the likely levels of migration.

Read the full briefing.

 Analysis Of Impact Of Net Migration On UK Public Sector Debt

According to the Office of Budget Responsibility , if net migration were ceased, the UK’s net public sector debt would rise from 74% of GDP today to 187% by the middle years of this century (2061/2)

This is higher than Greece’s current national debt (161% of GDP) and higher than at any time in the UK’s history, other than in the immediate aftermath of World War Two.

Based on the OBR’s forecasts for GDP , the value of the extra debt incurred, over and above the main OBR projection, is £4.8 trillion (at today’s prices) .

To close the debt gap and bring it back to the level of the standard OBR projection in 2061/2 would cost every single person of working age alive at the time £137,000 (at today’s prices)

The debt gap begins to open within the next few years:

  • Five years from now, in 2018/19 the public sector’s net debt would be £18bn greater than with net migration . This is the equivalent of a rise in the basic rate of income tax of 5p
  • Ten years from now, in 2023/4 the debt gap will have grown to £79bn – equivalent to a 21p rise in the basic rate of income tax
  • Fifteen years from now, in 2028/9 the debt gap will have grown to £179bn . This is more than the combined budgets for education, defence and policing
  • Twenty years from now, in 2033/4, the debt gap will be £354bn . This is equivalent to over half the total expenditure of government

If net migration was ended, to avoid the fate of Greece, the UK would require a significant expansion of taxes, combined with substantially deeper spending cuts

Britain will experience the best part of a century of austerity that is very much more severe than anything we’ve experienced to date.

Read the full briefing.